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Recent times have identified oil as a major risk to global growth if Middle East events were to get out of hand, pushing oil prices substantially higher and eroding real consumer incomes, a replay of 2011 (when prices rose $30 during the Arab Spring and Libyan Interlude) but only much bigger (fears of $30 to $100 spikes).

Seeing that the global oil demand/supply balance is in any case very tight today, the slightest disturbances can intensify the upside drift in oil ...